Econometric analysis and forecasting of a phenomena and processes of roundwood market in Poland
The analysis of the structure and the structural changes of the major market phenomena and processes in the forest sector in Poland in the years 1987-1997 was the foundation for constructing econometric models of coniferous and deciduous roundwood supply, demand and prices based on monthly observations in the years 1994-1997. The diagnostic tests proved the usefulness of the models in the forecasting of the said market categories in Poland. Basing on these models a forecast of roundwood supply, demand and prices in Poland was made for the months of 1998. The evaluation of the forecast results for the roundwood market confirmed their usefulness in practice. The number of the real committed and admissible errors of these forecasts is staying within the statistically permitted range.
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